jonwashburn: Mortgage rates and rocket science

Parked.

(and waiting for the explosion)

Jonathan,  I actually agree about the refi deal.  Thought about it the other day when I heard how low the rates were.  Unfortunately, how many markets can take advantage of the refi right now?  Maybe Texas and a few others....

No blasts from me.  :)

We have re-fi's out the ying-yang here in Wake County, NC.

Jon - from you blog to a higher power's ears! 

As a real estate broker, the phone is ringing again.  My appraisal company is also busy with refi orders, but the comparable sales are so limited in the prior 12 months, that many of these loans are not going to work out, due to appraised values being stable or slightly declining.  A few sales in an early spring market is what I really need right now!

Comparable sales in 12 months? In Florida lenders require comps within the last 90 days! With limited sales, that's a real obstacle.

Jonathan,

Refis occur in waves...Each of the past refi waves have enabled consumers to reduce a considerable amount of their debt...the problem is they kept using their equity to fuel 'new debt' instead of achieving greater solvency...I agree that the Fed would like to give consumers one more chance, so rates would have to fall only a small percentage more to spark that new wave...problem is, in some areas property values have eroded, preventing some from taking advantage of these lower rates...we'll have to wait and see!!! Thanks,   Fran

Jonathan - I'd have to agree with you.  As long as someone has equity and an intrest rate 2% higher than the current rate..it's a refi opportunity.

Anyone who has a second or HELOC would be wise to talk to a reputable lender and investigate refi opportunities. The lower rates will also add to the overall pool of available buyers, so hopefully we can make some progress on lowering overall inventory levels.

I'm ready to refi!  Once it hits a certain point, my lender has permission to lock me in!

Sorry I agree with you...refis here they come!!

hehehehe!!!!!!

The buyers are gonna start to come out of the woodwork now....

=-)

Jonathan,  I think I'd just let the chart speak for itself.

Jonathan-refi's yup they are here.....I just heard one of our associates...who is refinancing....and his rate will go down 2 %.....

Hello Jonathan, I like the comment above "From your blog to a higher power's ears" . It may actually take that to accomplish the green line intersecting the blue line in real life. I have predicted that we will see sales surge. Then a dose of reality hit me like a ton of bricks, that so many Buyers can not qualify for the loans with the new lending restrictions. So much for that theory.

PS, Lenders may be too willing to help people treat their homes like ATM's by using their equity to outlast this market. When  the market improves ( at least as far as sales are concerned), these ATM owners will be the over priced inventory that will take  Herculean efforts to sell.

indeed, it is a time when everyone wants to refinance which is great for loan officers!

W have been real busy for a month and a half and no end in site. Low end stuff for us is under  $300K.

You called it.  I've heard a few people already looking into their refis.  Another golden opportunity.

I am confounded by the varied expectations of the current situation. 

Credit crunch mean reduces money supply... which means higher cost for the money (if we are to believe that mortgage apps are rising like the wind). 

Fewer buyers means that mortgage lenders need to lower prices in order to drum up business.  And if they don't have business, they fold.  They don't want to fold, so...

It's fun to watch.   

If only your suspicions were true!

Jonathan,

Who could blast our illustrious leader?  I hope you are correct.  I would like to refi and the lower the rate the better!

Jonathan,

I love the graph and the comment that it does speak for itself, despite but others say about it. 

It is hard to argue with the results.  The chart does speak for itself.

I haven't figured out why our interest rates are still at 5.65%.  If the rates do drop to 3%, I see several weeks of total feeding frenzy for the refi loans.  I would borrow just to put the money in the bank at 5% and make money.

I agrhe rest of the year.ee, all rates will be coming down for t

Ummm, no:

Fed target rate down, mortgage rates up

Bond market puts the smackdown on the US Treasury - Rates up

The correlation is rapidly breaking down as the spreads are increasing very fast.  The last 5 years were a fairly weird time historically as structured finance and lax lending standards contributed to abnormally low mortgage rates.  You'll see this revert to the mean and then some over the next several years.